11
Saudi Crown
6yo Horse · 8-9 · Draw 11 · OR 104
Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
66%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼2
Strength74%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 5th | 0th | +5 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | -5th | +5 |
| 2026-03-05 | Oaklawn Park | Luis Saez | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-29 | Churchill Downs | Florent Geroux | BHA117 | 7th | 14th | −6 |
| 2025-05-03 | Oaklawn Park | Abel Cedillo | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Oaklawn Park | Florent Geroux | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2024 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/12/2024 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/01/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 29/03/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 03/05/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 29/06/2025 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 14% | -0.78 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |