Tennessee Lamb
5yo Horse · 8-9 · Draw 8 · OR 91
Keeneland · Race 3 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | Jaime Torres | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | John Velazquez | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | Axel Concepcion | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | Axel Concepcion | ? | 7th | 1st | +5 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gulfstream | Luis Saez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Churchill Downs | Luis Saez | ? | 6th | 0th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2025 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 14/03/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/05/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |