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7

Evanescence

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 105

Keeneland · Race 4 - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - Grade 1 · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

84%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲3
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 2.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Keeneland 07/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 97 · 6f110y Gd 118 · beat its mark07/04/2025 · OR 97 par7/04C6OR 97C0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 99 · 7f Fas 118 · beat its mark02/05/2025 · OR 99 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 08/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 101 · 7f Fas 118 · below its mark08/06/2025 · OR 101 par8/06C5OR 101C6 @ Fair Grounds 05/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 101 · 6f 120 · beat its mark05/02/2026 · OR 101 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 27/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 105 · 6f 117 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 105 par27/03C5OR 105C6 @ Keeneland 22/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 105 · 6f110y Fas 120 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 105 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 108 · 7f Fas 118 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 108 par21/06C?OR 108C5 @ Ellis Park 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 102 · 6f Gd 122 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 102 parC0 @ Keeneland 03/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 105 · 6f110y 121 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 105 par3/10C?OR 105projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03KeenelandJose Ortiz?1st1st−0
2026-07-19Ellis ParkLuan Machado?3rd8th−4
2026-06-21Churchill DownsLuis Saez?3rd3rd−0
2026-04-22KeenelandJose Ortiz?1st7th−5
2026-03-27Oaklawn ParkRafael Bejarano?3rd8th−4
2026-02-05Fair GroundsJose Ortiz?1st7th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/045/0221/063/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength19%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/04/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
02/05/20253rd16/116%80%+0.64
08/06/20253rd7/282%60%-0.22
05/02/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
27/03/20263rd9/153%60%+0.07
22/04/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
21/06/20263rd14/126%71%+0.45
19/07/20263rd9/488%60%-0.28
03/10/20261st10/382%100%+0.18