11
Explora
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 11 · OR 108
Keeneland · Race 4 - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - Grade 1 · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 1.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Churchill Downs | Juan Hernandez | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | Florent Geroux | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | Flavien Prat | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 75/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 1/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/09/2026 | 2nd | 2/7 | 99% | 75% | -0.23 |