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5

Foie Gras

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 108

Keeneland · Race 4 - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - Grade 1 · 7f

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲3
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Churchill Downs 19/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 101 · 6f 118 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 101 par19/09C5OR 101C5 @ Churchill Downs 29/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 103 · 6f 118 · below its mark29/10/2025 · OR 103 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 26/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 100 · 6f Gd 118 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 100 par26/11C5OR 100C5 @ Oaklawn Park 28/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 98 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark28/12/2025 · OR 98 parC5 @ Oaklawn Park 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 95 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 95 par6/02C5OR 95C5 @ Oaklawn Park 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 99 · 6f 124 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 99 parC1 @ Churchill Downs 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 106 · 6f 118 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 106 par25/05C1OR 106C0 @ Churchill Downs 21/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 112 · 7f Fas 118 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 112 parC5 @ Charles Town 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 107 · 7f Fas 124 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 107 par29/08C5OR 107projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Charles TownRicardo Jr Santana?1st6th−4
2026-06-21Churchill DownsRicardo Jr Santana?2nd2nd−0
2026-05-25Churchill DownsRicardo Jr Santana?3rd4th−0
2026-03-27Oaklawn ParkFlavien Prat?2nd7th−4
2026-02-06Oaklawn ParkFlavien Prat?1st6th−4
2025-12-28Oaklawn ParkRicardo Jr Santana?1st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0928/1225/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 3-13 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength37%

Delivery trend +6.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20256th9/276%38%-0.39
29/10/20256th13/891%17%-0.75
26/11/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
28/12/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
06/02/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
27/03/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
25/05/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02
21/06/20262nd10/147%86%+0.38
29/08/20261st5/493%100%+0.07