12
Kilwin
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 12 · OR 102
Keeneland · Race 4 - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - Grade 1 · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | Edgar Morales | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | Jose Ortiz | ? | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-08 | Churchill Downs | Edgar Morales | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-05-10 | Churchill Downs | Edgar Morales | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 2-13 · tight 35/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/11/2024 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 11/04/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 55% | -0.30 |
| 10/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 92% | +0.06 |
| 08/06/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 06/09/2025 | 8th | 15/8 | 90% | 36% | -0.54 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |