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4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 100
Keeneland · Race 4 - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - Grade 1 · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | Joel Rosario | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-08-02 | Saratoga | Umberto Rispoli | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Saratoga | Umberto Rispoli | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-02 | Churchill Downs | Umberto Rispoli | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-04-07 | Keeneland | Mario Gutierrez | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Oaklawn Park | Mario Gutierrez | ? | 7th | 8th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 8-13 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/12/2024 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 05/01/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/02/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 07/04/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 02/05/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 06/06/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |