13
Nooni
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 13 · OR 101
Keeneland · Race 4 - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - Grade 1 · 7f
#13
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Churchill Downs | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-08-02 | Ellis Park | Florent Geroux | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-07-04 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Ricardo Gonzalez | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2024-12-07 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Martin Garcia | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2024-11-01 | Del Mar | Flavien Prat | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-10-05 | Santa Anita | Martin Garcia | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 9-13 · tight 75/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2024 | 1st | 1/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 10/08/2024 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/09/2024 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 33% | -0.61 |
| 05/10/2024 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 01/11/2024 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 07/12/2024 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |