4
R Disaster
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 105
Keeneland · Race 4 - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - Grade 1 · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Belmont Park | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Gulfstream | Micah Husbands | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 66/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 01/10/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |