10
Simply Joking
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 10 · OR 100
Keeneland · Race 4 - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - Grade 1 · 7f
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Gulfstream | Juan Hernandez | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Santa Anita | Kazushi Kimura | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 56/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength12%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2025 | 13th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 18/10/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 11% | -0.55 |
| 01/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |