9
Sweet Azteca
6yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 114
Keeneland · Race 4 - Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint - Grade 1 · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Armando Ayuso | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-07-05 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Juan Hernandez | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2024-10-05 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2024-08-26 | Del Mar | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 25/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength51%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2024 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 10/03/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/07/2024 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 26/08/2024 | 1st | 1/14 | 100% | 100% | +0.00 |
| 05/10/2024 | 4th | 1/9 | 99% | 0% | -0.99 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 2/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.02 |