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3

Bacio

3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 102

Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y

#14

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Highly-progressive individual who has won 5 of his 6 starts. Won at Churchill Downs on return then put in some scintillating performances when landing 27-runner Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot and Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York in the summer. Strictly the one to catch.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength3%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 1.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: -3.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Monmouth Park 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f Fas 1178/08C6C5 @ Santa Anita 05/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 83 · 5f Fm 122 · beat its mark05/10/2025 · OR 83 par5/10C5OR 83C6 @ Del Mar 02/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 97 · 5f Fm 119 · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 97 par2/11C6OR 97C6 @ Churchill Downs 28/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 105 · 5f Fm 116 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 105 par28/04C6OR 1052 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 27 · OR 100 · 5f GF 131 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 100 par19/062OR 1001 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 114 · 5f GS 139 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 114 par21/081OR 114projClass-projected finish: 9th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21YorkJuan Hernandez11st1st0
2026-06-19Royal AscotJuan Hernandez21st3rd−2
2026-04-28Churchill DownsJuan Hernandez?1st7th−5
2025-11-02Del MarJuan Hernandez?1st7th−5
2025-10-05Santa AnitaJuan Hernandez?2nd7th−4
2025-08-08Monmouth ParkL Dettori?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/085/102/1128/0419/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 84/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
05/10/20252nd5/287%91%+0.04
02/11/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
28/04/20261st4/1198%100%+0.02
19/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
21/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16