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Comanche Brave

4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 118

Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Wootton Bassett colt who's got better with age, scoring 3 times this season. His last 2 runs have seen him win at the highest level in the July Cup at Newmarket and Flying Five at the Curragh, the latter on his first start at 5f. This is another speed test and he can surely go well.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Curragh 24/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 107 · 1m Gd 128 · beat its mark24/05/2025 · OR 107 par24/051OR 1071 @ Royal Ascot 21/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 111 · 7f GF 129 · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 111 parBHA111 @ Naas 23/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 111 · 7f Yie 134 · beat its mark23/07/2025 · OR 111 par23/07111OR 1111 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 111 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 111 parC0 @ Sha Tin 26/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 111 · 6f GF 126 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 111 par26/04C?OR 1111 @ Curragh 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 110 · 6f Gd 131 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 110 par1 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 113 · 6f GF 131 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 113 par20/061OR 1131 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 113 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 113 par1 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 118 · 5f Yie 132 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 118 par13/091OR 118projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13CurraghBilly Loughnane11st1st0
2026-07-11NewmarketBilly Loughnane11st1st0
2026-06-20Royal AscotPierre-Charles Boudot17th7th0
2026-05-23CurraghR L Moore11st1st−0
2026-04-26Sha TinOisin Murphy?5th5th0
2025-09-13LeopardstownGavin Ryan13rd3rd−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0513/0920/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 80/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20255th50/10%50%+0.50
21/06/20253rd11/486%86%+0.00
23/07/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
13/09/20253rd11/142%75%+0.33
26/04/20265th200/10%43%+0.43
23/05/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
20/06/20267th15/261%65%+0.04
11/07/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
13/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13