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10

Cy Fair

3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 10 · OR 114

Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y

#13

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Found things panning out ideally when winning the Juvenile Turf Sprint at this meeting last year at Del Mar. Added a pair of Grade 3s at Churchill Downs and Saratoga this season and can have last run at Kentucky Downs overlooked. She's one to consider taking on her elders for the first time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength5%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 10/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 11910/07C6C5 @ Saratoga 17/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 95 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark17/08/2025 · OR 95 parC5 @ Woodbine 05/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 101 · 5f Fas 117 · beat its mark05/10/2025 · OR 101 par5/10C5OR 101C0 @ Del Mar 31/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 103 · 5f Fm 119 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 103 parC1 @ Keeneland 10/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 108 · 5f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 108 par10/04C1OR 108C1 @ Churchill Downs 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 113 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 113 parC1 @ Saratoga 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 120 · 5f110y Yie 124 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 120 par18/07C1OR 120C0 @ Kentucky Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 114 · 6f110y 124 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 114 par5/09C?OR 114projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kentucky DownsJohn Velazquez?6th6th−0
2026-07-18SaratogaJohn Velazquez?1st2nd−0
2026-04-30Churchill DownsIrad Ortiz Jr?1st2nd−0
2026-04-10KeenelandIrad Ortiz Jr?3rd4th−0
2025-10-31Del MarIrad Ortiz Jr?1st1st0
2025-10-05WoodbineSahin Civaci?1st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0731/1018/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1829% of fieldRange 8-18 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
17/08/20252nd4/797%75%-0.22
05/10/20251st5/696%100%+0.04
31/10/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
10/04/20263rd1/195%75%-0.20
30/04/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
18/07/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
05/09/20266th4/797%55%-0.42