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17

Doncho

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 17 · OR 105

Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y

#16

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful gelding who won twice in minor races earlier in the season. Good length third of 9 behind Joe Shiesty and No Nay Hudson in Grade 2 Woodford Stakes over C&D 4 weeks ago. Yet to win at graded level but has been working well. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 13/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 108 · 6f Slo 121 · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 108 par13/06C6OR 108C6 @ Ellis Park 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 99 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 99 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 105 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 105 par6/09C5OR 105C0 @ Keeneland 04/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 108 · 5f110y Fm 121 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 108 parC5 @ Laurel Park 18/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 106 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 106 par18/04C5OR 106C5 @ Churchill Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 98 · 5f Fm 122 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 98 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f Fm 12510/07C?C0 @ Saratoga 09/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 99 · 5f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 99 parC0 @ Keeneland 03/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 108 · 5f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 108 par3/10C?OR 108projClass-projected finish: 8th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03KeenelandIrad Ortiz Jr?3rd3rd−0
2026-08-09SaratogaIrad Ortiz Jr?2nd2nd−0
2026-07-10Horseshoe IndianapolisJaime Torres?1st1st0
2026-06-06Churchill DownsJaime Torres?1st6th−4
2026-04-18Laurel ParkJaime Torres?13th18th−4
2025-10-04KeenelandJose Ortiz?7th7th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/064/1010/073/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 7-18 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength3%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 17th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20255th13/266%20%-0.46
08/08/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
06/09/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
04/10/20257th5/287%14%-0.73
18/04/202613th9/488%0%-0.88
06/06/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
10/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
09/08/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17
03/10/20263rd2/189%75%-0.14