11
Joe Shiesty
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 11 · OR 112
Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Keeneland | Fernando Cruz La De | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Ellis Park | Fernando Cruz La De | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | Fernando Cruz La De | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | Fernando Cruz La De | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | Fernando Cruz La De | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Turfway Park | Fernando Cruz La De | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength64%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 22/12/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 64% | -0.07 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 03/10/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |