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John The Beer Man

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 107

Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y

#17

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off nearly 2 years before returning for new yard as a revived model sprinting. Followed a close third in the Grade 1 Jaipur at Saratoga in June with victory in the Grade 2 Troy there in August. Didn't get to the front at Kentucky Downs last time and needs to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 28/01/2024 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f110y Fm 11828/01C6C6 @ Keeneland 24/04/2024 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 102 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark24/04/2024 · OR 102 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/05/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark19/05/2024 · OR 105 par19/05C6OR 105C5 @ Fair Grounds 22/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 101 · 5f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 101 parC6 @ Aqueduct 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 102 · 6f Gd 123 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 102 par25/04C6OR 102C0 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 103 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 103 parC0 @ Saratoga 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 107 · 5f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 107 par9/08C?OR 107C0 @ Kentucky Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 110 · 6f 123 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 110 par5/09C?OR 110projClass-projected finish: 15th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Kentucky DownsKendrick Carmouche?7th7th−0
2026-08-09SaratogaKendrick Carmouche?1st1st−0
2026-06-06SaratogaKendrick Carmouche?3rd3rd0
2026-04-25AqueductKendrick Carmouche?1st7th−5
2026-03-22Fair GroundsHarry Hernandez?1st7th−5
2024-05-19Belmont At The Big AManuel Franco?1st8th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0122/039/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 180% of fieldRange 16-18 · tight 84/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 18th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/01/20245th9/153%56%+0.03
24/04/20242nd15/890%91%+0.01
19/05/20241st9/488%100%+0.12
22/03/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
25/04/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
06/06/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09
09/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
05/09/20267th5/493%40%-0.53