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14

Miss Yechance

3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 14 · OR 110

Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a handicap in the UAE earlier in the year but hasn't looked back since being in the care of Karl Burke. Added another handicap at York before winning the Group 3 World Trophy at Newbury and then the Prix de l'Abbaye at Longchamp. Drawn wide but capable of being in the mix.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Meydan 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 5f Gd 1209/01C?C5 @ Meydan 30/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 86 · 7f Gd 130 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 86 parC0 @ Meydan 20/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 5f 12120/02C?C5 @ Meydan 06/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 92 · 6f Fas 126 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 27 · OR 91 · 5f GF 122 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 91 par19/062OR 913 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 123 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 90 par19/082OR 901 @ Newbury 19/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 97 · 5f34y GF 125 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 97 par1 @ ParisLongchamp 04/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 105 · 4f213y GS 133 · beat its mark04/10/2026 · OR 105 par4/101OR 105projClass-projected finish: 1st of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-04ParisLongchampJack Nicholls11st1st0
2026-09-19NewburyJack Nicholls11st2nd−0
2026-08-19YorkJack Nicholls21st3rd−2
2026-07-30GoodwoodS H James33rd6th−3
2026-06-19Royal AscotS De Sousa27th9th−2
2026-03-06MeydanF Goncalves?2nd7th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/016/0319/084/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 1-15 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength63%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/01/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
30/01/20265th9/276%69%-0.07
20/02/20264th9/276%77%+0.01
06/03/20262nd9/276%92%+0.16
19/06/20267th66/10%77%+0.77
30/07/20263rd17/255%88%+0.33
19/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
19/09/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
04/10/20261st9/276%100%+0.24