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18

Outfielder

3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 18 · OR 103

Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful on first 2 starts this season before finishing mid-division in Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in June having raced in disadvantaged group. Didn't need to improve to win 7-runner allowance over C&D earlier in the month. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 23/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f Fm 11923/05C6C0 @ Deauville 24/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 125C5 @ Keeneland 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 104 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 104 par4/10C5OR 104C0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 98 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 98 parC5 @ Turfway Park 21/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 101 · 6f 118 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 101 par21/03C5OR 101C5 @ Churchill Downs 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 104 · 5f110y Fm 118 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 22 · OR 108 · 6f GF 128 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 108 par19/061OR 108C1 @ Saratoga 16/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 101 · 5f110y 122 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 101 parC5 @ Keeneland 08/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 101 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark08/10/2026 · OR 101 par8/10C5OR 101projClass-projected finish: 18th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-08KeenelandIrad Ortiz Jr?1st7th−5
2026-08-16SaratogaJohn Velazquez?4th5th−0
2026-06-19Royal AscotD Egan110th10th0
2026-05-09Churchill DownsJohn Velazquez?1st6th−4
2026-03-21Turfway ParkJohn Velazquez?1st6th−4
2025-11-01Del MarDavid Egan?14th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/051/1119/068/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1835% of fieldRange 11-18 · tight 71/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength3%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/20251st4/1198%100%+0.02
24/08/20254th10/147%40%-0.07
04/10/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
01/11/202514th12/137%0%-0.37
21/03/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
09/05/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
19/06/202610th25/10%57%+0.57
16/08/20264th10/1195%50%-0.45
08/10/20261st5/493%100%+0.07