4
Roja
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 103
Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y
#18
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: -4.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | Manuel Franco | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-07-12 | Monmouth Park | Jaime Rodriguez | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-06-15 | Laurel Park | Victor Carrasco | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-05-25 | Laurel Park | Jaime Rodriguez | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 13-18 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength7%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 11/04/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 25/05/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/06/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |