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Shisospicy

4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 107

Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A speedy sort who confirmed herself a smart filly by ending her 2025 season with success in this race at Del Mar. Didn't get her own way on return at Churchill Downs in May, finishing well beaten. Off 6 months but has been working well up to defending her title and can't be dismissed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 101 · 6f110y Fas 122 · below its mark30/11/2024 · OR 101 par30/11C5OR 101C5 @ Oaklawn Park 04/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 98 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark04/01/2025 · OR 98 parC6 @ Gulfstream 05/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 102 · 5f Fm 120 · beat its mark05/02/2025 · OR 102 par5/02C6OR 102C5 @ Keeneland 11/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 103 · 5f110y Gd 118 · beat its mark11/04/2025 · OR 103 parC1 @ Churchill Downs 10/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 105 · 5f110y Fm 120 · beat its mark10/05/2025 · OR 105 par10/05C1OR 1051 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2025 · Pos 15th of 21 · OR 106 · 6f GF 125 · beat its mark20/06/2025 · OR 106 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 108 · 6f110y Gd 120 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 108 par6/09C?OR 108C0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 111 · 5f Fm 121 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 111 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 109 · 5f110y Fm 125 · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 109 par1/05C?OR 109projClass-projected finish: 16th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-01Churchill DownsIrad Ortiz Jr?7th7th−0
2025-11-01Del MarIrad Ortiz Jr?1st1st0
2025-09-06Kentucky DownsIrad Ortiz Jr?1st1st−0
2025-06-20Royal AscotOisin Murphy115th15th0
2025-05-10Churchill DownsJose Ortiz?1st2nd−0
2025-04-11KeenelandIrad Ortiz Jr?1st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1111/046/091/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 11-18 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/11/20243rd5/287%78%-0.09
04/01/20252nd3/1098%88%-0.11
05/02/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
11/04/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
10/05/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
20/06/202515th10/147%30%-0.17
06/09/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
01/11/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
01/05/20267th4/596%0%-0.96