12
Sorrento Sky
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 12 · OR 115
Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Santa Anita | Umberto Rispoli | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Del Mar | Umberto Rispoli | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Del Mar | Umberto Rispoli | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-05-11 | Santa Anita | A Fresu | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Santa Anita | Florent Geroux | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Santa Anita | Kazushi Kimura | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 6-14 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 29/12/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 26/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |