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13

Starlust

5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 13 · OR 117

Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won this in 2024 before spending a brief period at stud the following year. Took time to come to hand this campaign but gradually confirmed he remains a smart performer when second to Bacio and fourth to Comanche Brave in Group 1s. Can give his running but hard to see him turning the tables.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Sha Tin 08/12/2024 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 115 · 6f Gd 126 · below its mark08/12/2024 · OR 115 par8/12C?OR 1151 @ Haydock 24/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 115 · 5f Gd 137 · below its mark24/05/2025 · OR 115 par1 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 114 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark17/06/2025 · OR 114 par17/061OR 1141 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 111 · 5f Goo 133 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 111 par1 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 23rd of 26 · OR 109 · 5f GF 133 · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 109 par16/061OR 1091 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 106 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 106 · 5f GS 141 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 106 par21/081OR 1061 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 112 · 5f Yie 132 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 112 par1 @ Newbury 19/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 112 · 5f34y GF 129 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 112 par19/091OR 112projClass-projected finish: 6th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19NewburyRossa Ryan14th5th−0
2026-09-13CurraghRossa Ryan14th4th0
2026-08-21YorkRossa Ryan12nd2nd0
2026-07-11YorkRossa Ryan14th5th−1
2026-06-16Royal AscotRossa Ryan123th23th0
2026-05-30CarlisleRossa Ryan16th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1230/0521/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1871% of fieldRange 2-18 · tight 30/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength30%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/12/202413th66/10%8%+0.08
24/05/20257th15/261%40%-0.21
17/06/20254th16/116%84%+0.68
30/05/20266th9/488%29%-0.60
16/06/202623rd50/10%12%+0.12
11/07/20264th4/179%75%-0.04
21/08/20262nd25/10%94%+0.94
13/09/20264th12/137%81%+0.44
19/09/20264th9/488%70%-0.18