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5

Time To Dazzle

5yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 110

Keeneland · Race 5 - Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint - Grade 1 · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

81%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had been knocking on the door on several occasions before opening her account for the year in Grade 2 Franklin over C&D earlier this month by short head from Kehoe Beach. Career best required in this spot.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Saratoga 19/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 99 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 99 par19/07C1OR 99C0 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 107 · 6f110y 121 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 107 parC6 @ Kentucky Downs 10/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 108 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark10/09/2025 · OR 108 par10/09C6OR 108C0 @ Keeneland 12/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 110 · 5f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 110 parC0 @ Keeneland 12/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 109 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 109 par12/04C?OR 109C0 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 109 · 5f110y Fm 125 · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 109 parC0 @ Saratoga 04/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 110 · 5f110y Fm 124 · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 110 par4/06C?OR 110C0 @ Kentucky Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 110 · 6f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 110 parC0 @ Keeneland 11/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 111 · 5f110y Gd 121 · beat its mark11/10/2026 · OR 111 par11/10C?OR 111projClass-projected finish: 4th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-11KeenelandIrad Ortiz Jr?1st1st−0
2026-08-29Kentucky DownsDylan Davis?2nd2nd0
2026-06-04SaratogaJose Ortiz?7th7th−0
2026-05-01Churchill DownsJose Ortiz?5th5th−0
2026-04-12KeenelandJohn Velazquez?4th4th−0
2025-10-12KeenelandJose Ortiz?1st1st−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0712/104/0611/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1876% of fieldRange 12-18 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength6%

Delivery trend -0.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20253rd9/153%75%+0.22
30/08/20254th10/147%73%+0.25
10/09/20252nd11/1094%86%-0.09
12/10/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
12/04/20264th5/174%70%-0.04
01/05/20265th12/137%33%-0.04
04/06/20267th8/158%25%-0.33
29/08/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
11/10/20261st2/189%100%+0.11