7
Bracket Buster
4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 105
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | John Velazquez | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-10-25 | Keeneland | John Velazquez | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Remington Park | Luis Saez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Saratoga | Luis Saez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Monmouth Park | John Velazquez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Monmouth Park | Axel Concepcion | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength85%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 12/04/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 03/05/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 14/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/07/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 29/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |