4
Chunk Of Gold
4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 4 · OR 106
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Churchill Downs | Jaime Torres | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Monmouth Park | Jaime Torres | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | Junior Alvarado | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | Junior Alvarado | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Keeneland | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-09-20 | Churchill Downs | Jareth Loveberry | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 55/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 04/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 1/7 | 99% | 50% | -0.49 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 26/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |