5
Coal Battle
4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 108
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Churchill Downs | Juan Vargas | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | Cristian Torres | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | Corey Lanerie | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | Corey Lanerie | ? | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Oaklawn Park | Corey Lanerie | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-07-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Corey Lanerie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 61/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 03/05/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 26/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |