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9

Forged Steel

4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 9 · OR 105

Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 101 · 6f Fm 120 · below its mark19/10/2025 · OR 101 par19/10C5OR 101C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 17/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 119 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 06/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 106 · 1m39y 119 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 106 par6/02C6OR 106C5 @ Oaklawn Park 28/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 105 · 1m4f Fas 117 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Oaklawn Park 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 102 · 1m 124 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 102 par2/05C6OR 102C0 @ Santa Anita 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 110 · 1m2f Fas 122 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 110 parC0 @ Saratoga 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 110 · 1m2f Fas 124 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 110 par4/07C?OR 110C0 @ Del Mar 23/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 111 · 1m2f Fas 124 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 111 parC0 @ Santa Anita 26/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 101 · 1m1f Fas 124 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 101 par26/09C?OR 101projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Santa AnitaEdwin Gonzalez?1st1st0
2026-08-23Del MarEdwin Gonzalez?7th7th0
2026-07-04SaratogaFlavien Prat?5th5th−0
2026-05-25Santa AnitaFlavien Prat?1st1st−0
2026-05-02Oaklawn ParkFrancisco Arrieta?1st7th−5
2026-03-28Oaklawn ParkIrad Ortiz Jr?3rd8th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1028/034/0726/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength71%

Delivery trend +9.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/10/20255th8/158%50%-0.08
17/01/20268th5/287%30%-0.57
06/02/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
28/03/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
02/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
25/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
04/07/20265th13/266%60%-0.06
23/08/20267th20/10%40%+0.40
26/09/20261st10/147%100%+0.53