3
Full Serrano
8yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 3 · OR 106
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Del Mar | Joel Rosario | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | A Fresu | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | Joel Rosario | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | Joel Rosario | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 5-11 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2023 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/08/2024 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 01/09/2024 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 1/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 28/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 24/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |