1
Further Ado
3yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 106
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | John Velazquez | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 30/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 11th | 7/2 | 82% | 41% | -0.40 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 33% | -0.60 |