11
Iron Man Cal
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 11 · OR 110
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲4
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: -3.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Del Mar | Joel Rosario | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Del Mar | A Fresu | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Santa Anita | A Fresu | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-04-12 | Keeneland | A Fresu | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-03-14 | Santa Anita | A Fresu | ? | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2025-07-19 | Del Mar | Antonio Fresu | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 02/11/2024 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 03/05/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 62% | -0.17 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 89% | -0.08 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 38% | -0.55 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |