8
Moonlight
5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 8 · OR 106
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Belmont Park | Jose Ortiz | ? | 7th | 8th | −0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Del Mar | Victor Espinoza | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Del Mar | Victor Espinoza | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | Florent Geroux | ? | 7th | 8th | −0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | Jose Ortiz | ? | 6th | 7th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength26%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 17/01/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 01/10/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |