2
T Kraft
4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 105
Keeneland · Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile - Grade 1 · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Belmont Park | Junior Alvarado | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | Junior Alvarado | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | Flavien Prat | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | Jose Lezcano | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2026-05-22 | Belmont At The Big A | Junior Alvarado | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-04-26 | Churchill Downs | Junior Alvarado | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 15/03/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 25/07/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 01/10/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |