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7

Bless The Broken

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 110

Keeneland · Race 7 - Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been highly tried on the dirt and made the perfect start on turf when winning Grade 2 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Stakes in September. Backed that up with a fine third in the First Lady at this course recently but has to turn form around with Classic Q and Lush Lips.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 93 · 1m1f Fas 121 · beat its mark02/05/2025 · OR 93 par2/05C?OR 93C0 @ Saratoga 06/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 97 · 1m1f Slo 118 · beat its mark06/06/2025 · OR 97 parC6 @ Fair Grounds 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 100 · 1m110y 120 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 100 par9/01C6OR 100C0 @ Santa Anita 07/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 100 · 1m Fas 120 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 100 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 100 · 1m110y Fas 123 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 100 par1/05C?OR 100C0 @ Saratoga 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 107 · 1m1f 120 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 107 parC0 @ Saratoga 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 107 · 1m1f 120 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 107 par24/07C?OR 107C0 @ Kentucky Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 106 · 1m 122 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 106 parC0 @ Keeneland 03/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 105 · 1m Fm 125 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 105 par3/10C?OR 105projClass-projected finish: 9th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03KeenelandBrian Jr Hernandez?3rd3rd0
2026-09-05Kentucky DownsFlorent Geroux?1st1st−0
2026-07-24SaratogaIrad Ortiz Jr?4th4th−0
2026-06-05SaratogaFlorent Geroux?2nd2nd0
2026-05-01Churchill DownsIrad Ortiz Jr?3rd3rd0
2026-03-07Santa AnitaFlorent Geroux?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/057/0324/073/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 7-15 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength11%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20253rd25/10%83%+0.83
06/06/20254th12/137%40%+0.03
09/01/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
07/03/20262nd16/116%75%+0.59
01/05/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01
05/06/20262nd10/147%80%+0.33
24/07/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
05/09/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
03/10/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41