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12

Blue Bolt

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 12 · OR 119

Keeneland · Race 7 - Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

65%

Place Prob

40%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Unbeaten in 6 outings this season, with her last 4 all coming at the highest level, sweeping all before her in the fillies' miling division. Hasn't been handed an advantageous draw on first go beyond a mile, but she's the form pick.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 1.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Sandown 05/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 98 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 98 par5/071OR 981 @ Sandown 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 102 · 1m Sft 126 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 102 par1 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 109 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 109 par4/101OR 1091 @ Goodwood 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 110 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 110 par1 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 110 · 7f213y GF 128 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 110 par17/061OR 1101 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 115 · 1m GF 135 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 115 par1 @ Deauville 02/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 119 · 7f209y Sft 130 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 119 par2/081OR 1191 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 119 · 1m Gd 133 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 119 par1 @ Newmarket 03/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 119 · 1m GF 131 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 119 par3/101OR 119projClass-projected finish: 1st of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03NewmarketColin Keane11st1st0
2026-09-12LeopardstownColin Keane11st1st0
2026-08-02DeauvilleColin Keane11st1st0
2026-07-10NewmarketColin Keane11st1st0
2026-06-17Royal AscotColin Keane11st1st−0
2026-05-02GoodwoodColin Keane11st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/072/052/083/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 81/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength87%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
30/08/20252nd7/282%92%+0.10
04/10/20252nd17/255%88%+0.32
02/05/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
17/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
10/07/20261st85/4089%100%+0.11
02/08/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
12/09/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
03/10/20261st1/499%100%+0.01