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Classic Q

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 114

Keeneland · Race 7 - Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y

#13

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A much-improved filly this year, scoring 3 times from 6 starts, all at 1m. Two of those victories have come at Grade 1 level in the Just A Game at Saratoga and First Lady at Keeneland. Among the best of the home team and entitled to be in the mix if coping with the extra distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Kentucky Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 110 · 6f110y Gd 120 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 110 par6/09C?OR 110C0 @ Keeneland 24/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 112 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 112 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 28/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 111 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 111 par28/11C?OR 111C0 @ Gulfstream 24/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 113 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 113 parC1 @ Gulfstream 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 110 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 110 par28/02C1OR 110C0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 117 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 117 parC0 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 113 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 113 par6/06C?OR 113C0 @ Kentucky Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 111 · 1m 126 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 111 parC0 @ Keeneland 03/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 112 · 1m Fm 125 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 112 par3/10C?OR 112projClass-projected finish: 5th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03KeenelandJohn Velazquez?1st1st0
2026-09-05Kentucky DownsJohn Velazquez?3rd3rd−0
2026-06-06SaratogaJohn Velazquez?1st1st0
2026-05-02Churchill DownsJohn Velazquez?1st1st−0
2026-02-28GulfstreamJohn Velazquez?2nd3rd−0
2026-01-24GulfstreamJose Ortiz?12th12th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0924/016/063/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 5-15 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength29%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/20254th15/261%73%+0.12
24/10/20252nd4/179%91%+0.12
28/11/20253rd6/168%78%+0.09
24/01/202612th12/137%0%-0.37
28/02/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
02/05/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
06/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
05/09/20263rd6/594%67%-0.27
03/10/20261st10/147%100%+0.53