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Evershed

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 101

Keeneland · Race 7 - Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y

#14

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

Commentary

NON RUNNER.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Laurel Park 26/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 12226/10C6C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 07/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 72 · 1m Fm 119 · beat its mark07/12/2024 · OR 72 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 09/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 81 · 1m110y Gd 118 · beat its mark09/07/2025 · OR 81 par9/07C5OR 81C0 @ Saratoga 09/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 84 · 1m1f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 84 parBHA97 @ Colonial Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 97 · 1m1f Sft 118 · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 97 par6/0997OR 97C1 @ Aqueduct 15/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 103 · 1m3f Fm 118 · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 103 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 102 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 102 par19/07C6OR 102C1 @ Saratoga 28/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 97 · 1m3f Fm 124 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 97 parC0 @ Belmont Park 01/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 97 · 1m2f Fm 126 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 97 par1/10C?OR 97projClass-projected finish: 15th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01Belmont ParkDylan Davis?3rd3rd−0
2026-08-28SaratogaFlavien Prat?1st2nd−0
2026-07-19Colonial DownsJorge Ruiz?3rd9th−5
2025-11-15AqueductDylan Davis?8th9th−0
2025-09-06Colonial DownsDaniel CentenoBHA972nd13th−10
2025-08-09SaratogaDylan Davis?2nd2nd−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/109/0819/071/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 3-15 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength39%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/10/20245th2/189%56%-0.34
07/12/20241st4/179%100%+0.21
09/07/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
09/08/20252nd14/126%80%+0.54
06/09/20252nd11/1094%86%-0.09
15/11/20258th12/137%0%-0.37
19/07/20263rd11/486%71%-0.14
28/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
01/10/20263rd25/10%80%+0.80