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10

Expensive Queen

5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 10 · OR 111

Keeneland · Race 7 - Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved a different proposition for this yard having previously been trained in Britain, winning 4 of her 6 starts in the US, including the Jenny Wiley at this course in April. Beaten less than 2 lengths when sixth of 10 behind Classic Q in the First Lady here on return earlier in the month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.6
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 08/06/2024 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 82 · 1m37y Goo 132 · beat its mark08/06/2024 · OR 82 par8/064OR 824 @ Sandown 18/09/2024 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 79 · 1m Gd 137 · beat its mark18/09/2024 · OR 79 par4 @ Chelmsford City 07/11/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 81 · 1m Std 134 · beat its mark07/11/2024 · OR 81 par7/114OR 81C5 @ Keeneland 18/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 80 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark18/04/2025 · OR 80 parC0 @ Santa Anita 26/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 103 · 1m1f Fm 122 · beat its mark26/05/2025 · OR 103 par26/05C?OR 103C6 @ Gulfstream 18/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 106 · 1m Fas 123 · beat its mark18/01/2026 · OR 106 parC5 @ Fair Grounds 14/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 114 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 114 par14/02C5OR 114C0 @ Keeneland 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 110 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 110 parC0 @ Keeneland 03/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 108 · 1m Fm 125 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 108 par3/10C?OR 108projClass-projected finish: 14th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03KeenelandLuis Saez?6th6th0
2026-04-11KeenelandLuis Saez?1st1st0
2026-02-14Fair GroundsLuis Saez?1st6th−4
2026-01-18GulfstreamLuis Saez?1st7th−5
2025-05-26Santa AnitaKazushi Kimura?4th4th0
2025-04-18KeenelandLuis Saez?1st7th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0618/0414/023/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 10-15 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength7%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20246th22/10%38%+0.38
18/09/20242nd9/153%89%+0.36
07/11/20244th16/583%63%-0.21
18/04/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
26/05/20254th9/153%50%-0.03
18/01/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
14/02/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
11/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
03/10/20266th9/276%44%-0.32