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5

Kathynmarissa

5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 110

Keeneland · Race 7 - Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart mare with 3 wins from 4 runs this year. Gained a Grade 1 success in the Diana at Saratoga in July before a break and returned with victory in Grade 2 Flower Bowl Stakes at Belmont. Represents top turf trainer who has won this a record 4 times.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Saratoga 02/08/2024 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 100 · 1m1f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark02/08/2024 · OR 100 par2/08C?OR 100BHA104 @ Kentucky Downs 11/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 104 · 1m2f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark11/09/2024 · OR 104 parC0 @ Santa Anita 27/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 103 · 1m2f Fm 124 · beat its mark27/12/2024 · OR 103 par27/12C?OR 103C1 @ Santa Anita 15/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 107 · 1m2f Gd 122 · beat its mark15/03/2025 · OR 107 parC6 @ Saratoga 28/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 105 · 1m1f Fm 123 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 105 par28/08C6OR 105C1 @ Churchill Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 111 · 1m1f Fm 118 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 111 parC0 @ Saratoga 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 108 · 1m1f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 108 par5/06C?OR 108C0 @ Saratoga 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 108 · 1m1f Yie 122 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 108 parC0 @ Belmont Park 01/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 107 · 1m2f Fm 126 · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 107 par1/10C?OR 107projClass-projected finish: 6th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01Belmont ParkJose Ortiz?1st1st−0
2026-07-18SaratogaJose Ortiz?1st1st0
2026-06-05SaratogaJose Ortiz?3rd3rd0
2026-05-01Churchill DownsJose Ortiz?1st2nd−0
2025-08-28SaratogaFlavien Prat?1st7th−5
2025-03-15Santa AnitaL Dettori?5th6th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0815/035/061/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength67%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/08/20242nd14/126%75%+0.49
11/09/20241st5/287%100%+0.13
27/12/20242nd4/179%90%+0.11
15/03/20255th8/1597%33%-0.64
28/08/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
01/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
05/06/20263rd10/382%71%-0.11
18/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
01/10/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06