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13

Lush Lips

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 13 · OR 113

Keeneland · Race 7 - Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

22%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Grade 1 winner last season who's only been seen on 3 occasions in 2026. Returned when scoring in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream and has found only one too good on last 2 starts, beaten a short-head behind Classic Q in First Lady here 4 weeks ago. May need a few to falter.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength18%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 10/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 81 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark10/01/2025 · OR 81 par10/01C6OR 81C1 @ Tampa Bay Downs 08/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fm 119 · beat its mark08/03/2025 · OR 86 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 98 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark02/05/2025 · OR 98 par2/05C?OR 98C5 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark28/06/2025 · OR 101 parC0 @ Keeneland 11/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 108 · 1m1f Gd 121 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 108 par11/10C?OR 108C0 @ Churchill Downs 28/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 107 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 107 parC1 @ Gulfstream 28/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 109 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 109 par28/02C1OR 109C5 @ Ellis Park 23/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 112 · 1m110y Fm 124 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 112 parC0 @ Keeneland 03/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 112 · 1m Fm 125 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 112 par3/10C?OR 112projClass-projected finish: 7th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03KeenelandTyler Gaffalione?2nd2nd0
2026-08-23Ellis ParkTyler Gaffalione?2nd7th−4
2026-02-28GulfstreamTyler Gaffalione?1st2nd−0
2025-11-28Churchill DownsTyler Gaffalione?1st1st−0
2025-10-11KeenelandTyler Gaffalione?1st1st0
2025-06-28Churchill DownsFlavien Prat?1st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0128/0628/023/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 6-12 · tight 70/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength41%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/01/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
08/03/20252nd9/276%90%+0.14
02/05/20252nd10/382%83%+0.01
28/06/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
11/10/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
28/11/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
28/02/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
23/08/20262nd4/1198%89%-0.09
03/10/20262nd5/287%89%+0.02