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4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 110

Keeneland · Race 7 - Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A Group 3 winner in her native Ireland last year and, while failing to add to that this season, has run creditably in defeat. Third behind Oaks winner Thundering On in Blandford Stakes at the Curragh last time. Keane unsurprisingly prefers Blue Bolt.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Navan 07/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 111 · 1m30y Yie 124 · beat its mark07/06/2025 · OR 111 par7/061OR 1111 @ Killarney 16/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 107 · 1m40y Sft 128 · beat its mark16/07/2025 · OR 107 par1 @ Curragh 30/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 107 · 1m1f Goo 126 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 107 par30/081OR 1071 @ Curragh 14/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 108 · 1m2f Goo 128 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 108 par1 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 108 · 1m2f Sft 131 · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 108 par19/041OR 1081 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 108 · 1m2f56y Gd 128 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 108 par1 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 108 · 1m2f GF 138 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 108 par27/061OR 1081 @ Deauville 23/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 110 · 1m1f207y Sft 130 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 110 par1 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 110 · 1m2f Goo 134 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 110 par13/091OR 110projClass-projected finish: 13th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13CurraghColin Keane13rd3rd−0
2026-08-23DeauvilleColin Keane16th6th0
2026-06-27CurraghColin Keane13rd3rd0
2026-05-14YorkColin Keane12nd2nd−0
2026-04-19CurraghColin Keane13rd4th−0
2025-09-14CurraghColin Keane13rd3rd−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0614/0927/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength62%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/06/20252nd1/195%91%-0.04
16/07/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
30/08/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
14/09/20253rd11/893%80%-0.13
19/04/20263rd8/158%82%+0.24
14/05/20262nd6/168%67%-0.02
27/06/20263rd17/255%71%+0.16
23/08/20266th18/15%44%+0.39
13/09/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09