14
Stellify
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 14 · OR 112
Keeneland · Race 7 - Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | Flavien Prat | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | Manuel Franco | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Del Mar | Florent Geroux | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | Florent Geroux | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Kentucky Downs | Florent Geroux | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-06-12 | Churchill Downs | Florent Geroux | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 6-12 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength45%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 23/03/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 01/05/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/06/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |