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Thought Process

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 112

Keeneland · Race 7 - Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y

#12

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

West Coast-trained filly with an impressive strike rate. Opened her account at the top level in the Gamely at Santa Anita in May and warmed up for this when winning Grade 2 Rodeo Drive there in good style 4 weeks ago. Place claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength11%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Del Mar 07/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 91 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark07/09/2024 · OR 91 par7/09C5OR 91C1 @ Santa Anita 06/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark06/10/2024 · OR 95 parC0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2024 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 106 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark01/11/2024 · OR 106 par1/11C?OR 106C5 @ Santa Anita 14/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 108 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 108 parC2 @ Del Mar 20/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 109 · 1m Fm 123 · beat its mark20/07/2025 · OR 109 par20/07C2OR 109C0 @ Santa Anita 28/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 108 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 108 parC0 @ Santa Anita 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 107 · 1m1f Fm 124 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 107 par25/05C?OR 107C0 @ Del Mar 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 109 · 1m1f 124 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 109 parC0 @ Santa Anita 04/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 110 · 1m2f Fm 126 · beat its mark04/10/2026 · OR 110 par4/10C?OR 110projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-04Santa AnitaHector Berrios?1st1st−0
2026-09-08Del MarHector Berrios?2nd2nd−0
2026-05-25Santa AnitaHector Berrios?1st1st0
2026-02-28Santa AnitaHector Berrios?1st1st−0
2025-07-20Del MarHector Berrios?1st3rd−2
2025-06-14Santa AnitaUmberto Rispoli?1st7th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0914/0625/054/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1514% of fieldRange 10-15 · tight 74/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength19%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20241st2/598%100%+0.02
06/10/20241st2/799%100%+0.02
01/11/20249th5/174%38%-0.35
14/06/20251st2/1799%100%+0.01
20/07/20251st1/398%100%+0.02
28/02/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
25/05/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
08/09/20262nd4/797%89%-0.08
04/10/20261st4/696%100%+0.04