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15

Vina Arana

5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 15 · OR 109

Keeneland · Race 7 - Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Grade 1 · 1m 1f 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved to win a Grade 2 at Woodbine in July and ran best race when 1¼ lengths fourth of 10 to Classic Q in the First Lady at this course 4 weeks ago. Will need even more to feature in this.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength12%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Keeneland 10/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 103 · 1m1f110y Gd 122 · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 103 par10/10C5OR 103C5 @ Churchill Downs 22/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 100 · 1m Fm 121 · beat its mark22/11/2025 · OR 100 parBHA105 @ Turfway Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 105 · 1m 121 · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 105 par21/12105OR 105C5 @ Keeneland 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 105 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 108 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 108 par2/05C?OR 108C1 @ Churchill Downs 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 109 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 109 parC0 @ Woodbine 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 109 · 1m Fm 121 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 109 par19/07C?OR 109C0 @ Kentucky Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 108 · 6f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 108 parC0 @ Keeneland 03/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 105 · 1m Fm 125 · beat its mark03/10/2026 · OR 105 par3/10C?OR 105projClass-projected finish: 11th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03KeenelandAdam Beschizza?4th4th0
2026-08-29Kentucky DownsAdam Beschizza?5th5th0
2026-07-19WoodbineAdam Beschizza?1st1st−0
2026-05-30Churchill DownsAdam Beschizza?3rd4th−0
2026-05-02Churchill DownsAdam Beschizza?5th5th−0
2026-04-10KeenelandAdam Beschizza?4th10th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1010/0419/073/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength78%

Delivery trend +10.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/20256th13/891%50%-0.41
22/11/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
21/12/20257th14/126%14%-0.12
10/04/20264th10/147%73%+0.25
02/05/20265th33/10%50%+0.50
30/05/20263rd25/10%67%+0.67
19/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
29/08/20265th20/10%56%+0.56
03/10/20264th40/10%67%+0.67