13
Englishman
3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 13 · OR 117
Keeneland · Race 8 - Cygames Breeders' Cup Sprint - Grade 1 · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 1.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | Jose Ortiz | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Fair Grounds | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-09-19 | Churchill Downs | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 1/10 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 90% | -0.03 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |