3
Liam Smith
3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 111
Keeneland · Race 8 - Cygames Breeders' Cup Sprint - Grade 1 · 6f
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -6.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-08-27 | Del Mar | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 1st | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-07-31 | Del Mar | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 3rd | 11th | −6 |
| 2026-02-06 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 1st | 9th | −6 |
| 2026-01-23 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 1st | 9th | −6 |
| 2025-12-28 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 6th | 13th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 10-13 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 26/09/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |