8
Little Thunder
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 8 · OR 104
Keeneland · Race 8 - Cygames Breeders' Cup Sprint - Grade 1 · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲4
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 1.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: -4.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Keeneland | John Velazquez | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | John Velazquez | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-02-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | Cipriano Gil | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-01-31 | Tampa Bay Downs | Cipriano Gil | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2025-12-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | Cipriano Gil | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 7-13 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/12/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 31/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 90% | -0.02 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/10/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |