9
Nakatomi
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 9 · OR 109
Keeneland · Race 8 - Cygames Breeders' Cup Sprint - Grade 1 · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Keeneland | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | Tyler Gaffalione | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-03-28 | Meydan | Florent Geroux | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | Jose Ortiz | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | Irad Ortiz Jr | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Saratoga | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 2-13 · tight 35/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2024 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 05/04/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 07/06/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 19/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 02/10/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |