10
Roll On Big Joe
6yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 10 · OR 119
Keeneland · Race 8 - Cygames Breeders' Cup Sprint - Grade 1 · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲3
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | J R Leparoux | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Oaklawn Park | J R Leparoux | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-02-08 | Oaklawn Park | J R Leparoux | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-12-13 | Oaklawn Park | J R Leparoux | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Churchill Downs | J R Leparoux | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-09-13 | Churchill Downs | J R Leparoux | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 11-13 · tight 83/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/07/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 08/02/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |