12
Stradale
3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 12 · OR 98
Keeneland · Race 8 - Cygames Breeders' Cup Sprint - Grade 1 · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Saratoga | Jose Ortiz | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | Ricardo Jr Santana | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | Keith Asmussen | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Oaklawn Park | Keith Asmussen | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | Joel Rosario | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 26/10/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 83% | -0.15 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |